Venezuela’s Inflation Rate at 7849% Based On More Reliable AirTM’s Black-Market Exchange-Rate Data
The accuracy of inflation estimates using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) depends on the accuracy of exchange rate data. Until further notice, I will use AirTM’s black-market exchange rate to calculate inflation for Venezuela. The charts below are based on AirTM’s data.
The major reason I have switched black-market, exchange-rate data sourcing is that AirTM is making a market for bolivar-US dollar exchanges. Therefore, it is a source of primary data. And, primary data are superior to secondary data sources.
As the bolivar collapsed and inflation accelerated, the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) became an unreliable source of inflation data. However, from December 2014 until January 2016, the BCV did not report inflation statistics. Then, the BCV pulled a rabbit out of its hat in January 2016 and reported a phony annual inflation rate for the third quarter of 2015. Nonetheless, the last official inflation data reported by the BCV is still almost two years old. To remedy this problem, the Johns Hopkins – Cato Institute Troubled Currencies Project, which I direct, began to measure Venezuela’s inflation in 2013. We measure the monthly and annual inflation rates on a daily basis. We measure. We do not forecast.
The most important price in an economy is the exchange rate between the local currency and the world’s reserve currency — the U.S. dollar. As long as there is an active black-market (read: free market) for currency and the black-market data are available, changes in the black-market exchange rate can be reliably transformed into accurate estimates of countrywide inflation rates. The economic principle of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) allows for this transformation.
We compute the implied annual inflation rate on a daily basis by using PPP to translate changes in the VEF/USD exchange rate into an annual inflation rate. The chart below shows the course of that annual rate. Today's implied annual inflation rate is 7849%/yr, the highest in the world (see the chart below).